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ETF Rankings and Signals July 06, 2008

Note: ETF rankings and signals are for educational purposes only and should not interpreted as an investment advice.
 

Exchange Traded Fund Rankings

Overall Top Performers

US Stock Size/Style Funds International Stock Developed Markets Stock Emerging Markets Stock
Sector Funds Pacific Developed Markets Emerging Asia Latin America
Bond ETFs European Stock Middle East and Africa Miscellaneous

July 6th, 2008 in Africa, Alt. Energy, Asia, Bonds, China, Commodities, Consumer Discretionary, Currency, Developed Markets, ETF, Emerging Markets, Energy, Europe, Finance, Hedge Funds, India, Industrials, Japan, Latin America, Lazy Portfolios, Materials, Metals, Mutual Funds, Real Estate, Retail, Russia, Stocks, Technology, Transports, Turkey, UK, Utilities |

Sector Summary July 3 2008


Index Close Today’s Change One Week Return One Month Return Three Months Return Six Months Return One Year Return
Basic Materials 78.04 0.22% -6.74% -8.14% -1.99% 1.69% 10.12%
Consumer Discretionary 28.05 0.86% -3.61% -12.62% -12.15% -11.46% -28.54%
Consumer Staples 26.67 -0.07% -0.63% -5.58% -5.58% -4.64% -0.09%
Energy 146.90 -0.76% -0.64% 2.10% 9.58% 6.14% 20.90%
Financials 67.08 -0.59% -4.46% -16.00% -21.75% -25.80% -41.11%
Health Care 61.80 0.03% 1.58% -3.79% -3.34% -11.70% -11.24%
Industrials 62.70 0.37% -2.73% -11.86% -11.44% -12.12% -14.87%
Metals Mining 82.00 -0.27% -10.15% -5.08% 5.82% 19.48% 27.88%
Real Estate 73.27 -0.60% -3.16% -12.65% -13.41% -1.16% -19.15%
Technology 53.37 -0.02% -3.00% -9.87% -1.93% -12.33% -11.56%
Telecom 23.05 -1.12% -3.56% -12.73% -3.86% -19.44% -31.50%
Transports 83.64 0.54% -4.49% -13.15% -5.88% 6.31% -9.25%
Utilities 97.80 -1.07% -0.32% -1.90% 3.87% -2.66% 2.38%

 

Sector Return Bar Charts

Today’s Change One Month Return Six Month Return
image image image

 

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July 5th, 2008 in Commodities, Consumer Discretionary, Currency, ETF, Energy, Finance, Industrials, Materials, Metals, Mutual Funds, Real Estate, Retail, Stocks, Technology, Transports, Utilities |

Sector Summary July 1st 2008



Index Close Today’s Change One Week Return One Month Return Three Months Return Six Months Return One Year Return
Basic Materials 83.60 -1.03% -2.81% -2.34% 9.41% 9.22% 18.69%
Consumer Discretionary 28.12 -1.26% -4.94% -11.77% -12.07% -13.58% -27.87%
Consumer Staples 26.72 -0.11% -1.29% -4.97% -4.87% -6.32% -0.02%
Energy 152.61 0.74% 1.71% 2.86% 15.25% 11.94% 26.52%
Financials 68.54 0.96% -5.75% -15.15% -20.78% -26.31% -39.70%
Health Care 62.02 0.67% 0.93% -2.97% -2.28% -11.60% -10.65%
Industrials 64.49 0.05% -3.56% -9.98% -8.37% -10.85% -12.05%
Metals Mining 92.90 -1.78% 1.19% 3.67% 28.05% 34.66% 46.01%
Real Estate 75.03 -0.15% -2.86% -9.41% -10.73% -3.26% -15.93%
Technology 54.35 0.30% -3.25% -7.90% 0.32% -12.81% -8.85%
Telecom 23.84 -1.04% -1.75% -9.87% 0.18% -18.15% -28.92%
Transports 86.86 -1.66% -2.80% -9.46% -2.60% 7.41% -4.82%
Utilities 99.67 0.57% -0.13% 0.26% 5.90% -1.37% 4.14%

 

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July 1st, 2008 in Commodities, Consumer Discretionary, ETF, Energy, Finance, Industrials, Lazy Portfolios, Materials, Metals, Mutual Funds, Real Estate, Retail, Stocks, Technology, Transports, Utilities |

ETF Report July 1st 2009



Today’s Top Performing ETFs

Index Ticker Sector Close Today’s Change One Week Return One Month Return Three Months Return Six Months Return One Year Return
HHN HealthShares Neuroscience Specialty-Health 26.72 5.86% 25.86% 14.88% 22.12% 19.93% 8.93%
DBS PowerShares DB Silver Specialty-Precious Metals 33.40 3.95% 8.51% 7.99% 4.57% 20.19% 38.45%
SLV iShares Silver Trust Specialty-Precious Metals 179.00 3.69% 8.54% 7.56% 3.79% 21.79% 42.20%
EEV UltraShort MSCI Emerging Mrkts ProShares Bear Market 78.00 3.19% 2.90% 20.80% 3.20% 7.32% 10.42%
DAG DB Agriculture Double Long ETN Specialty-Natural Res 27.74 2.78% 6.24% 24.51% 8.23% 8.23% 8.23%
DGP DB Gold Double Long ETN Specialty-Precious Metals 23.40 2.68% 11.59% 10.38% 6.07% -8.95% -8.95%
QLD Ultra QQQ ProShares Large Blend 75.27 2.62% -4.55% -14.88% -1.37% -24.11% -17.80%
EOH Opta Lehman Cmdty Pure Beta Agric TR ETN Specialty-Natural Res 56.84 2.45% 6.44% 17.22% 24.16% 11.89% 11.89%
USV E-TRACS UBS Bloomberg CMCI Silver ETN Specialty-Precious Metals 26.76 2.41% 8.21% 11.45% 3.76% 3.76% 3.76%
IAT iShares Dow Jones US Regional Banks Specialty-Financial 27.21 2.37% -2.84% -18.61% -25.95% -26.19% -43.32%
SMN UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares Bear Market 29.52 2.32% 5.47% 3.15% -19.91% -27.01% -41.10%
KBE KBW Bank ETF Specialty-Financial 29.31 2.30% -4.34% -19.59% -28.25% -31.11% -45.42%
EFU UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares Bear Market 91.20 2.30% 3.46% 19.70% 14.09% 23.66% 35.85%
BBH Biotech HOLDRs Specialty-Health 172.60 2.14% 3.08% 2.84% 0.93% 8.70% 3.51%
EIS iShares MSCI Israel Cap Invest Mkt Index Diversified Emerging Mkts 56.07 2.04% 0.59% -2.16% 11.36% 14.27% 14.27%
XHB SPDR S&P Homebuilders Mid-Cap Blend 16.76 2.01% -6.58% -14.75% -28.69% -12.59% -43.61%
XBI SPDR S&P Biotech Specialty-Health 58.76 2.00% 2.66% 0.19% 8.09% 0.14% 15.05%
RMS Rydex Inverse 2x S&P MidCap 400 Bear Market 80.90 1.94% 7.74% 12.96% -3.88% 5.55% 7.63%
GDX Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF Specialty-Precious Metals 49.53 1.93% 12.41% 6.72% 2.38% 8.07% 29.67%
FUE ELEMENTS MLCX Biofuels Index TR ETN Specialty-Natural Res 11.91 1.88% 6.15% 17.57% 19.22% 19.10% 19.10%

 

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July 1st, 2008 in Africa, Alt. Energy, Asia, Bonds, China, Commodities, Consumer Discretionary, Currency, Developed Markets, ETF, Emerging Markets, Energy, Europe, Finance, Hedge Funds, India, Industrials, Japan, Latin America, Lazy Portfolios, Materials, Metals, Mutual Funds, Real Estate, Retail, Russia, Stocks, Technology, Transports, Turkey, UK, Utilities |

ETF Report June 30th 2008

Today’s Top Performing ETFs

Index Ticker Sector Close Today’s Change One Week Return One Month Return Three Months Return Six Months Return One Year Return
HRJ HealthShares European Drugs Specialty-Health 21.58 9.27% -2.53% -5.56% 0.56% -7.34% -16.78%
ADZ DB Agriculture Short ETN Bear Market 23.26 6.80% -1.86% -14.14% -5.02% -5.02% -5.02%
AGA DB Agriculture Double Short ETN Bear Market 21.11 6.78% -3.43% -27.43% -12.59% -12.59% -12.59%
FDD First Trust DJ STOXX Select Dividend 30 Europe Stock 18.93 5.75% -5.30% -20.18% -29.16% -34.49% -33.96%
UPW Ultra Utilities ProShares Specialty-Utilities 76.94 4.61% -1.84% -2.09% 11.72% -8.54% 3.22%
EWU iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index Europe Stock 20.72 4.54% -1.03% -7.02% -5.10% -13.12% -14.19%
HHN HealthShares Neuroscience Specialty-Health 25.24 3.95% 9.17% 10.70% 15.62% 13.29% 3.19%
SKF UltraShort Financials ProShares Bear Market 156.63 3.91% 11.48% 42.01% 55.89% 54.77% 114.91%
PJO PowerShares FTSE RAFI Japan Japan Stock 45.16 3.55% -0.86% -6.48% 4.64% -6.33% -8.62%
SJH UltraShort Russell2000 Value ProShares Bear Market 101.34 3.12% 9.99% 20.42% 11.76% 15.92% 46.03%
DIG Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares Specialty-Natural Res 120.84 3.02% -1.52% 5.08% 31.71% 12.97% 41.09%
PCY PowerShares Emerging Mkts Sovereign Debt Emerging Markets Bond 24.77 2.95% 0.20% -4.10% -3.20% -1.53% 0.23%
TTH Telecom HOLDRs Specialty-Communications 30.53 2.66% -0.98% -11.60% -8.03% -20.42% -20.26%
UTH Utilities HOLDRs Specialty-Utilities 134.83 2.66% -0.73% 0.09% 6.43% -0.84% 9.59%
XOP SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Prod Specialty-Natural Res 70.28 2.52% -1.54% 8.59% 29.13% 33.87% 53.59%
REW UltraShort Technology ProShares Bear Market 64.87 2.48% 8.23% 19.83% -2.40% 25.91% 9.58%
XLU Utilities Select Sector SPDR Specialty-Utilities 40.70 2.44% -1.12% -0.74% 5.36% -3.77% 5.89%
TWM UltraShort Russell2000 ProShares Bear Market 78.80 2.42% 7.81% 16.80% 3.16% 14.40% 28.70%
EDV Vanguard Extended Dur Tre Idx ETF Long Government 95.59 2.40% 3.95% 5.52% -0.94% 0.50% 0.06%
RYU Rydex S&P Equal Weight Utilities Specialty-Utilities 56.75 2.27% 0.04% -2.76% 6.25% -6.32% -3.68%

 

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July 1st, 2008 in Africa, Alt. Energy, Asia, Bonds, China, Commodities, Consumer Discretionary, Currency, Developed Markets, ETF, Emerging Markets, Energy, Europe, Finance, India, Industrials, Japan, Latin America, Lazy Portfolios, Materials, Metals, Mutual Funds, Real Estate, Retail, Russia, Stocks, Technology, Transports, Turkey, UK, Utilities |

Sector Summary June 30th 2008



Index Close Today’s Change One Week Return One Month Return Three Months Return Six Months Return One Year Return
Basic Materials 84.47 -0.02% -4.16% -1.14% 11.88% 9.55% 21.89%
Consumer Discretionary 28.48 -0.45% -3.33% -11.53% -10.95% -12.79% -26.56%
Consumer Staples 26.75 0.72% -0.85% -5.69% -4.72% -6.96% 0.91%
Energy 151.49 1.42% -0.74% 2.56% 15.99% 9.56% 27.45%
Financials 67.89 -1.92% -5.59% -17.20% -21.77% -26.62% -39.56%
Health Care 61.61 0.88% 0.45% -4.41% -3.47% -12.90% -10.30%
Industrials 64.46 0.22% -4.88% -10.87% -8.44% -11.47% -11.15%
Metals Mining 94.58 0.62% 0.96% 8.05% 32.58% 35.56% 52.09%
Real Estate 75.14 0.15% -2.29% -10.93% -11.06% -2.24% -13.41%
Technology 54.19 -1.11% -4.06% -9.54% -0.14% -14.03% -8.71%
Telecom 24.09 1.73% -0.76% -9.84% 0.22% -18.21% -26.83%
Transports 88.33 0.58% -3.08% -8.95% -0.52% 7.19% -2.20%
Utilities 99.11 1.89% -1.12% -0.97% 6.09% -2.94% 5.53%

 

Current Outlook

Index Short Term Long Term
Basic Materials Bearish Bullish
Consumer Discretionary Bearish Bearish
Consumer Staples Bearish Bearish
Energy Bullish Bullish
Financials Bearish Bearish
Health Care Bearish Bearish
Industrials Bearish Bearish
Metals Mining Bullish Bullish
Real Estate Bearish Bearish
Technology Bearish Bearish
Telecom Bearish Bearish
Transports Bearish Bullish
Utilities Bullish Bullish

July 1st, 2008 in Commodities, Consumer Discretionary, ETF, Energy, Finance, Industrials, Lazy Portfolios, Materials, Metals, Mutual Funds, Real Estate, Retail, Stocks, Technology, Transports, Utilities |

Lazy PortFolio Performance Numbers


Updated through June 27th, 2008

Portfolio Name Stocks Pct. Correlation to SP500 Standard Deviation One Month Return Three Months Return Six Months Return One Year Return Two Year Return Five Year Return Six Month Max Draw-Down
Six Ways From Sunday 67% 0.83 4.68 -4.40% 3.58% 0.48% 5.19% 27.76% 112.58% -9.32%
Ted Aronson 80% 0.91 5.49 -7.46% -0.63% -8.75% -4.07% 24.62% 104.06% -12.28%
Merriman 60% 0.92 4.23 -6.52% -2.34% -6.77% -5.07% 17.26% 74.11% -8.29%
David Swenson 70% 0.94 4.86 -7.01% -2.61% -6.46% -6.04% 14.37% 72.23% -9.04%
Margritaville 67% 0.88 4.21 -5.93% -1.68% -7.28% -4.33% 18.49% 70.67% -9.20%
Second Graders 90% 0.94 5.49 -7.71% -1.93% -10.43% -9.55% 14.80% 70.24% -12.53%
Five Fold 60% 0.92 4.16 -6.19% -2.92% -4.56% -4.10% 14.20% 69.13% -8.11%
Four Square 50% 0.82 3.17 -4.54% -2.17% -4.79% -0.59% 19.33% 63.39% -6.63%
Bernstein No Brainer 75% 0.94 4.86 -6.89% -1.89% -9.00% -9.68% 12.82% 63.01% -11.14%
Bernstein SmartMoney 60% 0.96 4.37 -6.57% -1.92% -7.31% -7.83% 11.35% 58.48% -8.48%
Bill Schultheis Coffeehouse 60% 0.96 4.35 -6.56% -2.51% -6.54% -8.80% 8.47% 53.10% -8.10%
Couch Potato 50% 0.89 2.88 -3.57% -0.96% -3.95% -1.36% 13.64% 41.39% -5.29%
S&P 500 100% 0.95 6.19 -8.57% -3.35% -13.41% -15.10% 3.16% 29.68% -13.87%

Higher the percentage of stocks you have in a lazy portfolio, higher is your portfolio’s standard deviation.

All of the lazy portfolios cited above beat S&P 500 index in every timeframe.

Not only that,  but they also get you there with a lower draw-down i.e. fall off the peak.  

June 30th, 2008 in Bonds, Developed Markets, ETF, Emerging Markets, Energy, Europe, Lazy Portfolios, Mutual Funds, Stocks |

Gas could fall to $2.00 a gallon in 30 days

Yeah right!! Well according to this news article on MarketWatch, if the congress passes the law to limit speculation on the energy futures market this may not too far fetched. The speculators will have to quickly unwind their positions and it may not even take that long.

The role of speculators in the sharp rise in energy prices is being questioned.

According to Michael Masters of Masters Capital Management, the price of oil should come closer to $70 a barrel.

Congress is looking at closing the London loophole and putting restrictions on index speculators via higher margin requirements, setting position limits etc.

Watchout for commodity ETFs to take a hit if this indeed happens. Refer to my Sector ETFs ranking and signals page for Commodity ETFs.

June 25th, 2008 in Commodities, ETF, Energy, Mutual Funds |

Lazy Portfolios Performance Numbers

Here are the performance numbers of the lazy portfolios profiled in my earlier post.

I was asked to add the Merriman portfolio to the mix, so I have provided numbers for that too. I will later update my earlier post to provide details on the Merrriman portfolio.

Portfolio Name Corr to sp500 StdDev 1mo% 3mo% 6mo% 12mo% 2Yr% 5Yr% 6mo MDD% Stocks %
Six Ways From Sunday 0.91 4.96 -4.67 4.61 3.49 6.18 29.67 113.02 -9.62 67.00%
Four Square 0.89 3.47 -5.26 -1.77 -3.16 0.05 18.84 61.11 -6.46 50.00%
Couch Potato 0.96 2.97 -3.20 -0.68 -2.94 -0.41 13.90 41.28 -5.69 50.00%
Ted Aronson 0.92 5.69 -6.50 0.41 -5.60 -2.39 26.32 105.41 -12.95 80.00%
Five Fold 0.94 4.41 -5.69 -2.92 -2.51 -3.06 14.38 68.62 -7.39 60.00%
Margritaville 0.93 4.41 -5.93 -0.80 -5.13 -3.31 18.86 69.70 -9.25 67.00%
Merriman 0.94 4.54 -6.07 -1.70 -4.62 -4.04 18.04 74.71 -8.60 60.00%
David Swenson 0.95 4.99 -5.90 -2.45 -4.17 -4.61 15.19 72.98 -9.01 70.00%
Bernstein Smart Money 0.97 4.52 -5.17 -1.31 -4.91 -6.31 12.91 61.08 -9.51 60.00%
Second Graders 0.97 5.54 -6.22 -0.82 -7.14 -7.59 16.31 71.67 -13.09 90.00%
Bernstein No Brainer 0.96 5.03 -5.60 -0.66 -6.18 -7.93 14.06 64.67 -11.67 75.00%
Bill Schultheis Coffeehouse 0.96 4.50 -5.02 -2.08 -4.40 -7.27 9.74 55.27 -9.38 60.00%
S&P 500 Composite 1.00 5.95 -5.48 -2.59 -9.73 -12.28 5.25 32.37 -14.98 100.00%

Performance numbers are as of yesterday, 24th June, 2008.

Clearly, higher the Stock equity %, higher is the standard deviation.

All of the above portfolios beat SP500 beyond 6 months timeframe, with lower draw-down.

All but one portfolios, beat SP500 beyond 3 months.

June 24th, 2008 in ETF, Lazy Portfolios, Mutual Funds |

Lazy Portfolios Roundup: Part 1

I have profiled some lazy portfolios below. I am hoping that this will help me become a better lazy investor. In addition, it will also help the readers of this blog with their investment decisions.

The performance numbers for these portfolios will be updated every weekend. If there are portfolios that are not covered here but you’d like to be in this list, do let me know.

Something about my investments portfolios, I usually have multiple accounts. A few of those are pure lazy ones, while the others are little active. I will be talking about the active techniques in some other posts. This article has the lazy portfolios that I have been influenced with. My own investments are in a combination of a few of these below.

My references have been, for the most part, the articles of Paul Farrell, a Marketwatch columnist, and the web-pages of the inventors of the individual portfolios. I will provide references below if you’d like to follow up and get some more information.

Paul Farrell is a huge proponent of lazy portfolios and every now and then he writes about them. He is also the author of the book "The Lazy Person’s Guide to Investing". I highly recommend it to anyone who has any interest in this subject matter.

 

 

Second Grader’s Starter Portfolio

Originally by Kevin Roth when he was in second grade. I came to know of this by Paul’s article  and here.

Fund Ticker Allocation %
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index VTSMX 60%
Vanguard Total International Stock Index VGTSX 30%
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index VBMFX 10%

Total Equity allocation: 90%

 

Scott Burns Lazy Portfolio Suite712e3709

Columnist Scott Burns (Assetbuilder.com) has a bunch of lazy portfolios.

Couch Potato Portfolio:

Fund Ticker Allocation %
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index VTSMX 50%
Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities VIPSX 50%

Total Equity allocation: 50%

 

Margaritaville Portfolio:

Fund Ticker Allocation %
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index VTSMX 33.3%
Vanguard Total International Stock Index VGTSX 33.3%
Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities VIPSX 33.3%

Total Equity Allocation: 66.6%

 

Four Square Portfolio

Fund Ticker Allocation %
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index VTSMX 25%
Vanguard Total International Stock Index VGTSX 25%
Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities VIPSX 25%
American Century International Bond Fund BEGBX 25%

Total Equity Allocation: 50%

 

Five Fold Portfolio

Fund Ticker Allocation %
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index VTSMX 20%
Vanguard Total International Stock Index VGTSX 20%
Vanguard REIT Index VGSIX 20%
Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities VIPSX 20%
American Century International Bond Fund BEGBX 20%

Total Equity Allocation: 60%

 

Six Ways From Sunday Portfolio

Fund Ticker Allocation %
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index VTSMX 16.66%
Vanguard Total International Stock Index VGTSX 16.66%
Vanguard Energy VGENX 16.66%
Vanguard REIT Index VGSIX 16.66%
Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities VIPSX 16.66%
American Century International Bond Fund BEGBX 16.66%

Total Equity Allocation: 66.67%

 

Dr. William Bernstein’s Portfolios images

William Bernstein is a neurologist by training and is now also a financial advisor. He is the author of bestseller books, "The intelligent Asset Allocator" and "The Four Pillars of Investing".

No Brainer Portfolio (Link)

Fund Ticker Allocation %
Vanguard 500 Index VFINX 25%
Vanguard European Stock Index VEURX 25%
Vanguard Small Cap Index NAESX 25%
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index VBMFX 25%

Total Equity Allocation: 75%

Smart Money Portfolio  (Link)

Fund Ticker Allocation %
Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index VEIEX 5%
Vanguard European S